This year the Annual General Meeting of the American Society of Questioned Document Examiners (ASQDE) is being held in Indianapolis, Indiana on August 24 through 29, 2013. In keeping with the theme, “Demonstrative Science: Illustrating Findings in Reports and Court Testimony”, I will be presenting a one-day workshop entitled “Conclusion Scales and Logical Inference” on Sunday, August 25.
It is absolutely true that most forensic scientists want to be completely logical, open and transparent in their approach to the evaluation of evidence. Further, I am sure that most document examiners believe this is exactly what they are achieving when they apply the procedures outlined in various traditional textbooks or the SWGDOC/ ASTM standards; for example, the SWGDOC Standard for Examination of Handwritten Items.
Given the very understandable desire to be logical, I find it strange that so many people have a negative attitude towards anything Bayesian in nature. After all, an approach to evidence evaluation conforming to the Bayesian philosophy or approach would be quite literally the embodiment of logic (more specifically, probabilistic logic).
The terms accuracy and precision are often confused or misunderstood. But every scientist, forensic or otherwise, should understand what they mean. In simple terms, ‘accuracy’ relates to how closely the value comes to the real score or true value (being ‘on target’). ‘Precision’, on the other hand, relates to the consistency of the value in repeated testing. Any given test, statistic or process may produce results that are one or the other, both or neither.